If you ask any rugby fan around the world which ground is the hardest to win at, there will most likely only be one answer: Eden Park, New Zealand. The All Blacks haven’t lost there since 1994. The Wallabies? They haven’t tasted glory over New Zealand there since 1986. But if Australia are in the mood for breaking hoodoos this year, there will be no better practice than this week’s Test match.
You see, this week they don’t just have one monkey on their backs, but three: winning at AAMI Park, winning the second Test of the year, and winning back-to-back Test matches.
Let’s start with the latter because I can already hear the rugby nerds shouting “last week’s Test win was the Wallabies’ second in a row!”.
Hunter Paisami. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Australia’s most recent Test match, prior to last Saturday, was Eddie Jones’ final match at the helm, with the Wallabies producing a less-than-convincing win over Portugal in the 2023 World Cup. Different coach, different year and (mostly) different players.
In a calendar year, the last time Australia won consecutive Tests was in 2021, going five in a row with a star-studded line-up including Quade Cooper and Samu Kerevi against South Africa, Argentina, and Japan. Even during those halcyon days, that was an anomaly. From 2018 to now, there has only been one other case of consecutive wins against tier one nations. If the Wallabies are to have any belief that they can win the Bledisloe Cup this year, they will need consistent performances leading into September.
The last time the Wallabies won the second Test of the year? You will have to go all the way back to 2015.
Later in that year, Australia went on a dream run at the Rugby World Cup in England. Historically, whenever the Wallabies have secured a win in the second Test of the year, the win percentage for that calendar year has been at least 50 per cent, with the only exceptions being 2014 (with a coach change midway through) and 2005 (Eddie Jones).
The second Test can be seen as a gatekeeper for a strong year, and The Wallabies haven’t passed through that gate in a decade.
The last mountain for the Wallabies to climb is a win in Melbourne, where they haven’t won since 2017 against Fiji.
AAMI Park is also a significant hurdle, as it presents the closest conditions to those of matches in New Zealand and the northern hemisphere. A softer track, with light rain predicted and cold conditions (expected to be nine degrees Celsius) will be just like home for the Welsh, as it was for England in 2016, France in 2021 and New Zealand in 2023.
That sole win over Fiji? That was an afternoon game played in the sunshine.
The good news for The Wallabies is they’re coming into this match having broken one curse last week – their first win in Sydney over a tier one nation since the 2015 Bledisloe opener. The soggy pitch and cold weather from that match in Sydney will also provide confidence for this week, where conditions are expected to be the same.
The Wallabies’ decline in performance over the last 20 years has accumulated a number of unwanted records.
If they are to win the Bledisloe Cup later this year, they will have to win in New Zealand for the first time since 2001. This week will be the best indication of whether the Wallabies are in the mood for breaking curses.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Warren Gatland is to remain in charge for the 2025 Six Nations following a review into Wales' calamitous rugby slump but he's also been…
Amongst all the hubris from the weekend’s thumping of Wales, seemingly the biggest talking point is whether Samu Kerevi’s 42nd-minute high hit on Welsh…
If Australia gives Wales space, they have the ability to score - and with a strong lineout, Wales has the potential to dampen the Wallabies' party.
Just because the Wallabies beat England and put on a fantastic display across the park, it doesn’t mean that we are suddenly a world-beater…
Winger Makazole Mapimpi has scored a brace of tries as error-strewn South Africa defeated Scotland 32-15 in their Murrayfield Test with the help of…
The Wallabies are preparing to take the next step of their development under Joe Schmidt with a Grand Slam tour of the Northern Hemisphere.…
